Back to writing something, it’s been days I wrote anything worthwhile; the last one on FII’s required some research and understanding! Lot has changed meanwhile; the government may topple or just manage to escape through, the elections possibility for the month of November is not being ruled out. I have always been repugnant to writing on Politics; the very reason being it’s fuzzy for me. But surely it has it impact on Economics as well.
Now let us consider the situation where the govt. is toppled. What impact is it going to make on people of India and abroad?
First and foremost the nuclear deal will be put back into the box for a while? How long? No one knows. A lot will depend on who gains power in both the US and India. Mr. Obama (MS word spelling check recognizes Osama but not Obama, don’t worry sir you’ll soon make it if you do make it to the hot seat!) has been opposing all kinds of help to India courtesy Indians stealing all the jobs from the Americans and then he thinks India is getting too much in the nuclear deal and the US hardly anything. What about the Monetary support from the Indians for your election campaign sir? And if India TV (A Hindi news channel in India) is to be believed Mr. Obama is a great devotee of Lord Hanuman. So doesn’t it really make us think that all this is a publicity stunt by Mr. Obama? We have seen in the past and will surely see it in future. Political leaders everywhere will talk anything to appease the public for votes, but they ultimately end up doing things which will be in accordance of their own interest, or what the intelligence agencies want, or what the party demands for the good or bad! So Mr. Obama knows that outsourcing is not only good for the developing countries but a necessity for the developed nations. He also knows that nuclear deal will not only provide support in terms of technology and fuel but along with it comes economic and military co-operation. So no matter what; The deal is very dear to the US as well, irrespective of whether it’s Mr. Obama or Mr. McCain.
Second I can see why CPI is opposing (that’s what they can do), but why is that the BJP is opposing? Good question, is it because it’s compromising with our sovereignty. The answer is no, it is because they were trying to ink a similar deal but were turned down by the Bush administration. So they don’t want congress to sign this historic deal. The BJP wants to come to power and seal the deal.
Elections now what? While Congress has been crying foul that all the forces are trying to topple the govt.! Infact the strongest statement congress has made till date is that nuclear deal is more important for county’s security and they are willing to sacrifice the govt. for it. So now if the govt. topples then Congress will ride on the sympathy wave, showcasing its concern for the country. So if the govt. falls or if it stays then the congress is the one which is going to gain!
Won’t the high prices and oil crisis act as an anti-incumbent factor and work against congress coming to power again? Yes, it will surely among the people in the metros? What about the rural India, the guys who make or break the government. Lot will depend on the Monsoon this year; if it’s good then it’s good news for congress. If it’s bad then congress can probably reserve its seat in the opposition for the next five years. But wait my rustic intelligence says won’t the people in the village ask the simple question of why the government toppled? Yes, they will and probably they will think that it was unfair to congress and vote for congress in the elections. And did I just think that Mr.Chidambaran’s much criticized agriculture loan waiver was a plan for this time, they could see the govt. pushing for this deal, toppling and coming back to power after elections courtesy these sops! Probably yes. The inflation if not completely tamed will be atleast under control by that time. So no plans for guessing, it’s a well thought out move by the Congress. So the situation definitely seems more nonchalant for the congress!